Helping People Help Myself

It's not perfectly clear how the recent food price increase will impact on Africa; however, it is essential to be alerted. African Development Bank is trying to initiate 2nd phase of African Food Crisis Response sometime this year depending on the emerging situation and availability of resources. Its agriculture department has more than USD 3 billion portfolio to contribute to the agricultural development and food security for African countries in addition to the upcoming African Food Crisis Response Programme.

The following is the quick look at some of African countries and their situation. As you may know, Africa as a continent, is a net-importer of food (i.e. not sufficient supply to feed entire population on the continent) and, therefore, global food price does have an implication for their food security.



NORTH AFRICA

North African governments are bearing the brunt of the rise in global wheat prices as consumers are insulated by subsidies on the price of basic staples. Egypt relies heavily on wheat imports and the grain harvests in Morocco and Tunisia are expected to be smaller this year compared to last year. Spending on food and fuel subsidies in Morocco is projected to double compare to the previous fiscal year. Recent disturbances in Algeria were over rising food prices and chronic unemployment


WEST AFRICA

The cereal production was increased by 12.7% from 47.9 million tons to 54 million tones, which is higher than 49.3 million tons in 2008. In the region, due to the increased production, the required import will be lower for 2011; however, the quantity remains high at 11.4 million tons. While most of West Africa countries had good harvest during 2010.

Benin is an exception where cereal production is forecasted to drop by over 10 percent due to irregular rains and floods during the growing season. Because of the large-scale flood, Benin has been most affected in the region and over 680 000 people are estimated to have been affected causing a serious deterioration of the food situation in parts of the country. According to OECD, Benin had 12 months equivalent of foreign reserves in 2009; however, this will decrease and fiscal balance will enter into negative during 2011, at - 1.3% of GDP.


Moreover, the severe food crisis that struck Niger in 2009/10 has uprooted large segments of the rural population and had serious income, livelihoods and nutritional effects. Regarding Niger’s foreign reserve, the updated data is not available but 2009 data shows 6.2 months of imports and estimated fiscal balance for 2011 remains slightly negative at -0.6% of GDP.


Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea demonstrate slow recovery and remain alerted due to price increase and inflation along with large public debt except for Liberia. Sierra Leon and Guinea require attention due to expected high public deficit at -4.3% and -6.6% of GDP during 2011, although Liberia’s fiscal balance will also negative at -1.8 % during 2011 and only had 2.9 months of imports for its foreign reserves in 2009.


Côte d’Ivoire, if the political tension sparks the civil war, can enter into food crisis considering its estimated negative fiscal balance at -1.6% of GDP during 2011 although it had 5.5 months of imports as foreign reserve in 2009.

In Central Africa, the cereal production in the region was increased by 9.7% from 3.1 million tons in 2009 to 3.4 million tons in 2010, which is higher than 3.3 million tons in 2008. The required import quantity for 2011 will be 1.9 million tons. The persistent civil insecurity continues to impede agricultural recovery and restrict humanitarian work in the region.


In Chad, large numbers of refugees located in southern and eastern regions from Sudan and Central African Republic. Drought and lack of pasture led to serious livestock deaths and damage in 2009/10 and the country has increasing public debt which needs an external financial support. Chad requires careful attention due to low level of foreign reserve and expected large public debt at -11.6% in 2011.


Armed clashes in the Equateur province in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to more than 100 000 civilians crossing the border into the Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic since the end of 2009 and the influx of refugees has placed additional demand on the already strained food supply situation. Democratic Republic of Congo will be in a critical situation during 2011 because it will enter into fiscal deficit at -6.5% during 2011 and had foreign reserve as equivalent of 0.2 month imports in 2009.

A similar situation is reported in eastern and northern parts of the Central African Republic, with adequate level of foreign reserve at almost 10 months imports and estimated 2011 fiscal balance will be slightly negative but at -0.01% of GDP.

In the Republic of Congo’s forecasted fiscal balance will remain positive at 23.1 % of GDP and the country had sufficient foreign reserve of 19.7 months imports in 2009.





EASTERN AFRICA

Early estimates for the sub regional cereal production in 2010 indicate a record crop of about 36.6 million tons, about 10 percent above the previous five-year average; mainly due to the average to above average rainfall in most parts of the sub region that enhanced planted area and yields.


In Burundi and Rwanda, planting of the 2011 cereal and beans season began in September under erratic rainfall conditions. Prospects for this season, scheduled to be harvested from early 2011, are mixed due to the prevailing conditions associated with below normal rainfall.


In Kenya, despite an improved food security situation at the national level, conditions are expected to deteriorate for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, especially in North-East province and in Tana River district of Coast province, until March 2011, due to dry-weather conditions.

In southern states of Sudan, food prices are expected to increase in the coming weeks as traders may decide to reduce imports due to security uncertainty related to the secession referendum scheduled at beginning of January 2011.


In Eritrea, harvesting of 2010 main season crop is almost complete and production prospects are favorable. The vegetation index of October 2010 shows good to very good vegetation conditions compared to last year in most regions.

Ethiopia had a good harvest in 2010 but estimated people requiring food assistance is still estimated at 2.3 million mainly in Somali, Tigray, and Oromia states.

Uganda is generally food secure following a good first season crop, harvested in September, which improved household food stocks, market supplies and income. However, poor pastoral and agro-pastoral households in Northern and Karamoja regions are expected to face moderate food insecurity conditions from March 2011, as second-season food stocks will be depleted and staple food prices are expected to rise in local markets.

The majority of the people in need of assistance in Eastern Africa are concentrated in southern Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central and northern Somalia and northeastern Uganda. Civil insecurity and conflicts continue to negatively impact on the food security situation of this sub-region, disrupting local livelihood systems and affecting trade and food aid distribution.

Ethiopia and Kenya will require particular attention due to an expected high public deficits estimated at -3.1% and -6.8% of GDP respectively during 2011.




SOUTHERN AFRICA

Given the adequate national and sub-regional cereal supplies, food security conditions are generally satisfactory in most Southern African countries. Heavy rains towards the end of November and the beginning of December helped offset early season deficits in some areas, supported planting activities in southern parts of Mozambique, Botswana, as well as the northern Maize Triangle in South Africa.

Good rains were also recorded in western regions of Zambia and central Angola over the same period.

In Malawi, it is estimated that 508 088 persons will require food assistance, down from 1.1 million estimated in June. The reduction is a result of a combination of, improved production of sweet potatoes and pulses, as well as a good harvest from the irrigated winter crops.
In Zimbabwe, it is estimated 1.3 million rural people will be food insecure during the peak lean season from January to March 2011. Zimbabwe requires special attention due to an expected high public deficit at -11.5% of GDP during 2011

----
http://whatsupkaz.blogspot.com/